The FBI has conducted a raid on the Manhattan apartment of Shayne Coplan, the CEO of Polymarket a prediction betting platform that gained attention for accurately forecasting Donald Trump’s victory in the recent presidential election. The raid occurred early Wednesday morning, with federal agents seizing Coplan’s phone and other electronic devices as part of an investigation into potential violations related to U.S. betting regulations.
Background of the Raid
Polymarket, founded in 2020, allows users to bet on various future events, including political outcomes. The platform had recently garnered significant interest due to its predictions during the election cycle, particularly showing favorable odds for Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris, despite conventional polls indicating a close race. Following the election, a French trader reportedly made substantial profits on Polymarket, raising concerns about the platform’s influence on electoral integrity.
On November 13, 2024, FBI agents conducted an early-morning raid at the New York residence of Shayne Coplan, the CEO of Polymarket, a decentralized betting platform. They reportedly seized Coplan’s cell phone and other electronic devices. The New York Post noted that agents woke Coplan at around 6:00 a.m. to confiscate his electronics, marking the raid as potentially politically motivated. Polymarket had recently gained attention for its accurate prediction of Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, which some view as a factor in this investigation.
A Polymarket spokesperson described the raid as “obvious political retribution” by the outgoing Biden administration, suggesting Polymarket high-profile election predictions influenced it. The spokesperson further emphasized that the platform does not charge fees or take trading positions and makes all market data transparent. Polymarket has faced regulatory scrutiny before, having settled with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022 regarding its unregistered prediction markets
Allegations of Political Motivation
Coplan has publicly criticized the Biden administration, suggesting that the raid is politically motivated and represents “obvious political retribution” against a company perceived to be aligned with Trump’s interests. He emphasized Polymarket commitment to impartiality and urged current leaders to adopt a more pro-business stance. In his social media posts following the raid, Coplan expressed his dismay at what he views as an attack on companies linked to political opponents.
Current Status
As of now, it remains unclear whether Coplan or Polymarket are specific targets of an ongoing investigation. The FBI has not commented on the details of the raid or its motivations. Meanwhile, Polymarket continues to assert its role as a transparent prediction market that provides valuable insights into significant events.
An anonymous source has described the recent FBI raid on Shayne Coplan’s home as “political theater,” asserting that authorities could have obtained any needed information through legal channels rather than staging an early-morning raid. This source further alleged that the operation was politically motivated, speculating that it could be an attempt by the government to investigate Polymarket for possible market manipulation, allegedly favoring Donald Trump in its election odds. Following the raid, Coplan was not arrested.
Shortly after the raid, Bloomberg reported that the Department of Justice is investigating whether Polymarket allowed U.S. users to bypass restrictions and place bets on its site using VPNs. This scrutiny has been heightened by Polymarket recent high-volume betting market for the 2024 presidential election, which saw $3.7 billion in bets and drew criticism for its potential impact on public opinion during the electoral process.
This investigation follows earlier regulatory actions. In 2022, Polymarket reached a $1.4 million settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for running unregistered binary options markets. The current probe suggests that Polymarket’s ongoing influence and regulatory tensions remain a focus for U.S. authorities as they continue to assess the legal boundaries of prediction markets in the context of U.S. elections.
